I’m just as excited as everyone else when a player has a breakout season, but please make sure to examine WHY he had such a great year. For a running back, did he have the same amount of carries and yards as last season, but the number of touchdowns went way up? This might be something to be wary of. Maybe he padded his numbers in a few games against bad teams and struggled against good ones. Just a couple of things to look out for.

How about the breakout wide receiver? If he got a better quarterback and more targets, he probably was a true breakout, but if only the touchdowns went up, he might be a one-year wonder. It’s always important to do some investigating and not just take the numbers at face value.

Players have a tendency to regress to the mean. If a receiver has been steadily around 800 yards and 5 touchdowns for 3 years and then suddenly have 900 yards and 12 touchdowns, you’re more likely to get their typical production instead of numbers similar to last year, unless their circumstances changed to improve their numbers.